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KMID : 0371019830160010113
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Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
1983 Volume.16 No. 1 p.113 ~ p.120
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Demand Forecasting for Developing Drug Inventory control Model in a University Hospital
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Abstract
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The main objective of this case study is to develop demand forecasting model for durg inventory control in a university hospital.
This study is based on the pertinent reocrds during the period of J$nuary 1975 to August 1981 in the pharmacy and stock departments of the hospital.
Through the analysis of the above records ´the author made some major findings as follows:
1. In A.B.C. classification, the biggest demand (A class,) consists of: 9 items which include 6 items of antibiotics.
2. Demand forecasting level of an index or discrepa_*:cy in A class drug compared with real demand for 6 months is average 30.4% by X-11 Arima method and 84.6% by Winter´s method respectively.
3. After the correcting by the number of bed, demand forecasting of drug compared with real demand for 6 months is average 23. 1% by X-11 Arima method and 46.615 by Winter´s method respectively.
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