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A decrease in stratospheric ozone probably caused by chloroflurocarbons (CFCs) emissions, has been observed large parts of-the globe. It is generally accepted that if ozone levels in the stratosphere are depleted, greater amounts of shortwave ultraviolet radiationB (UVB) will reach the earth’s surface, resulting in increased incidence of nonmelanoma skin cancer. In this study, we evaluated several mathematical models, such as a power and an exponential model, and a geometric model considering the surface area of a human body part and ages for the prediction of Skin cancer incidence caused by exposure to the UVB radiation. These models basically estimated the risk of skin cancer based on those measurements of the local ozone in stratosphere and UVB. Both were measured at a part of Seoul with a Dobson ozone spectrometer and Robertson-Berger UV Biometer for 1995. As a result, we calculated the point estimation applying a biological amplification factor (BAF), UVB radiation and other factors. We used a Monte-Carlo simulation technique with assumption on the distribution of each considered factor. The sensitivity analysis of model by there components conducted using Gaussian sensitivity method. The annual integral of UVB radiation was 2275 MED (minimal erythema dose)/yr. Also, an estimate of the annual amount of UVB reaching the earth’s surface at a korea’s latitude and altitude was 3328 MED/yr. The values of the radiation amplification factor (RAF) were ranged from 0.9 to 1.5 in Seoul. To give the effective factors required to model the prediction of skin cancer incidence caused by exposure to the UVB radiation in Korea, we studied the pros and cons of above mentioned models with the application of those parameters measured in Seoul, Korea.
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