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KMID : 1024520150240010031
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Journal of the Environmental Sciences
2015 Volume.24 No. 1 p.31 ~ p.46
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Study on the Effects of Future Urban Growth on Surface Ozone Concentrations in the Seoul Metropolitan Region
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Seok Hyun-Bae
Jeong Ju-Hee
Kang Yoon-Hee
Kim Hyun-Su
Kim Yoo-Keun
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Abstract
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In this study, the regional climate (WRF) and air quality (CMAQ) models were used to simulate the effects of future urban
growth on surface ozone concentrations in the Seoul metropolitan region (SMR). These analyses were performed based on changes in ozone concentrations during ozone seasons (May?June) for the year 2050 (future) relative to 2012 (present) by urban growth. The results were compared with the impacts of RCP scenarios on ozone concentrations in the SMR. The
fractions of urban in the SMR (25.8 %) for the 2050 were much higher than those (13.9 %) for the 2012 and the future
emissions (e.g., CO, NO, NO2, SO2, VOC) were increased from 121 % (NO) to 161.3 % (NO2) depending on emission
material. The mean and daily maximum 1-h ozone in the SMR increased about 3 - 7 ppb by the effect the RCP scenarios.
However, the effect of urban growth reduced the mean ozone by 3 ppb in the SMR and increased the daily maximum 1-h
ozone by 2 - 5 ppb over the northeastern SMR and around the coastline. In particular, the ozone pollution days exceeding the 1-h regulatory standard (100 ppb) were far more affected by urban growth than mean values. As a result, the average number of days exceeding the 1-h regulatory standard increased up to 10 times.
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KEYWORD
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Future ozone concentrations, Urban growth, Climate change, RCP scenarios
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