KMID : 1024620120320010062
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Food Science of Animal Resources 2012 Volume.32 No. 1 p.62 ~ p.67
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Application of Probabilistic Model to Calculate Probabilities of Escherichia coli O157:H7 Growth on Polyethylene Cutting Board
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Lee Joo-Yeon
Suk Hee-Jin Lee Hee-Young Lee Soo-Min Yoon Yo-Han
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Abstract
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This study calculated kinetic parameters of Escherichia coli O157:H7 and developed a probabilistic model to estimate growth probabilities of E. coli O157:H7 on polyethylene cutting boards as a function of temperature and time. The surfaces of polyethylene coupons (3x5 cm) were inoculated with E. coli O157:H7 NCCP11142 at 4 Log CFU/§². The coupons were stored at 13 to $35^{\circ}C$ ¼ö½Ä À̹ÌÁö for 12 h, and cell counts of E. coli O157:H7 were enumerated on McConkey II with sorbitol agar every 2 h. Kinetic parameters (maximum specific growth rate, Log CFU/§²/h; lag phase duration, h; lower asymptote, Log CFU/§²; upper asymptote, Log CFU/§²) were calculated with the modified Gompertz model. Of 56 combinations (temperature¥ötime), the combinations that had ¡Ã0.5 Log CFU/§² of bacterial growth were designated with the value of 1, and the combinations that had increases of <0.5 Log CFU/§² were given the value 0. These growth response data were fitted to the logistic regression to develop the model predicting probabilities of E. coli O157:H7 growth. Specific growth rate and growth data showed that E. coli O157:H7 cells were grown at 28-35¡É, but there were no obvious growth of the pathogen below 25¡É. Moreover, the developed probabilistic model showed acceptable performance to calculate growth probability of E. coli O157:H7. Therefore, the results should be useful in determining upper limits of working temperature and time, inhibiting E. coli O157:H7 growth on polyethylene cutting board.
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KEYWORD
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Escherichia coli O157:H7, probabilistic model, predictive model, cutting board
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