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KMID : 1120220110020010051
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Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives
2011 Volume.2 No. 1 p.51 ~ p.58
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Mathematical Modeling of Vibrio vulnificus Infection in Korea and the Influence of Global Warming
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Chu Chae-Shin
Do Young-Hae
Kim Yong-Kuk
Saito Yasuhisa
Lee Sun-Dong
Park Hae-Mo
Lee Jong-Koo
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Abstract
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Objectives: To investigate the possible link between Vibrio vulnificus population size in seawater and water temperature.
Methods: We collected incidence and water temperature data in coastal regions of Korea and constructed a mathematical model that consisted of three classes; susceptible fish, infected fish available to humans, and infected humans.
Results: We developed a mathematical model to connect V. vulnificus incidence with water temperature using estimated bacterial population sizes and actual coastal water temperatures.
Conclusion: Increased V. vulnificus population sizes in marine environments may increase the risk of infection in people who eat at coastal restaurants in Korea. Furthermore, we estimated the near-future number of infected patients using our model, which will help to establish a public-health policy to reduce the disease burden.
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KEYWORD
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global warming, infectious disease, mathematical modeling, temperature, Vibrio vulnificus
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