|
KMID : 1120220110020030210
|
|
Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives
2011 Volume.2 No. 3 p.210 ~ p.215
|
|
|
Sensitivity Analysis of the Parameters of Korea’s Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Plan
|
|
Chu Chae-Shin
Lee June-Hawk
Choi Dong-Hoon
Youn Seung-Ki
Lee Jong-Koo
|
|
|
Abstract
|
|
|
Objectives: Our aim was to evaluate Korea’s Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Plan.
Methods: We conducted a sensitivity analysis on the expected number of outpatients and hospital bed occupancy, with 1,000,000 parameter combinations, in a situation of pandemic influenza, using the mathematical simulation program InfluSim.
Results: Given the available resources in Korea, antiviral treatment and social distancing must be combined to reduce the number of outpatients and hospitalizations sufficiently; any single intervention is not enough. The antiviral stockpile of 4?6% is sufficient for the expected eligible number of cases to be treated. However, the eligible number assumed (30% for severe cases and 26% for extremely severe cases) is very low compared to the corresponding number in European countries, where up to 90% of the population are assumed to be eligible for antiviral treatment.
Conclusions: A combination of antiviral treatment and social distancing can mitigate a pandemic, but will only bring it under control for the most optimistic parameter combinations.
|
|
|
KEYWORD
|
|
|
influenza pandemic, preparedness planning, sensitivity analysis
|
|
|
FullTexts / Linksout information
|
|
|
|
|
|
Listed journal information
|
|
|