|
KMID : 1120220140050040233
|
|
Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives
2014 Volume.5 No. 4 p.233 ~ p.241
|
|
|
A Differential Equation Model for the Dynamics of Youth Gambling
|
|
Do Tae-Sug
Lee Young-S.
|
|
|
Abstract
|
|
|
Objectives: We examine the dynamics of gambling among young people aged 16?24 years, how prevalence rates of at-risk gambling and problem gambling change as adolescents enter young adulthood, and prevention and control strategies.
Methods: A simple epidemiological model is created using ordinary nonlinear differential equations, and a threshold condition that spreads gambling is identified through stability analysis. We estimate all the model parameters using a longitudinal prevalence study by Winters, Stinchfield, and Botzet to run numerical simulations. Parameters to which the system is most sensitive are isolated using sensitivity analysis.
Results: Problem gambling is endemic among young people, with a steady prevalence of approximately 4?5%. The prevalence of problem gambling is lower in young adults aged 18?24 years than in adolescents aged 16?18 years. At-risk gambling among young adults has increased. The parameters to which the system is most sensitive correspond to primary prevention.
Conclusion: Prevention and control strategies for gambling should involve school education. A mathematical model that includes the effect of early exposure to gambling would be helpful if a longitudinal study can provide data in the future.
|
|
|
KEYWORD
|
|
|
mathematical model, reproductive number, sensitivity index, stability analysis, youth gambling
|
|
|
FullTexts / Linksout information
|
|
|
|
|
|
Listed journal information
|
|
|