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KMID : 1001720150250020073
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Journal of Vocational Rehabilitation
2015 Volume.25 No. 2 p.73 ~ p.86
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Prediction of the target group and vocational rehabilitation services using time series data
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Na Woon-Hwan
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Abstract
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The purpose of this study was to predict the recipient and characteristic of the vocational rehabilitation services using time series data of the demographic characteristics, types of disability, academic background and occupational category.
The result were as follow.
First, This study predicted that, The number of Job seekers with disabilities who are recipient of the vocational rehabilitation will be about 65,000 a year. In terms of types of disabilities, physical disability will acount for about 40% of the job seekers with disabilities, hearing and language disability will be 10% and intellectureal disability, brain lesions and mental disorder will be 30%~40%. In terms of degree of disability, People with severe disabilities will have similar ratio with who have minor disabilities. The gender ratio was found to be 60% male to 40% appeared as 60%:40% female, over secondary education is more than 80%, and compare with current, It is expected to increase by 50% for service industries and white-color jobs.
Second, The number of employees with disabilities will continue to increase, without a significant change in policy, It is expected to be maintained at a level of about 15,000 employees with disabilities and 40% of employment rate. Physical disability and hearing and language disability will reduce and maintatin in 40% and 10%, intellectual disability, brain lesions and mental disorder will be maintained 30%~40% and 10% for visual disability. The trend will continue at least high school graduates accounted for more than 70%, Although the employment rate in the service industries expected to grow rapidly in the level of 30%, employees with disabilities for work in production industries are also expected to be maintained for the time being at least 40%.
Third, Job sites will be maintained about 80,000 and expected to take place in the mosly hearing and language disability, Low-tech, high school education or less, low-wage occupations. Depending on the disability awareness and vocational rehabilitation efforts, It is expected to increase the employment rate of intellectual disabilities or visual disabilities, white-color jobs, service and expertise occupations. So this proactive approach to supplier development for service occupations, white-color jobs, expertise-occupations, intellectual disabilities, mental disorder, internal disabilities and educated people with disabilties shuld be taken.
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KEYWORD
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vocational rehabilitation, vocational rehabilitation policy, vocational rehabilitation service mothed
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