|
KMID : 1156220150410060425
|
|
Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
2015 Volume.41 No. 6 p.425 ~ p.437
|
|
|
Uncertainty Analysis and Application to Risk Assessment
|
|
조아름:Jo A-Reum
김탁수:Kim Tak-Soo/서정관:Seo Jung-Kwan/윤효정:Yoon Hyo-Jung/김필제:Kim Pil-Je/최경희:Choi Kyung-Hee
|
|
|
Abstract
|
|
|
Objectives: Risk assessment is a tool for predicting and reducing uncertainty related to the effects of future activities. Probability approaches are the main elements in risk assessment, but confusion about the interpretation and use of assessment factors often undermines the message of the analyses. The aim of this study is to provide a guideline for systematic reduction plans regarding uncertainty in risk assessment.
Methods: Articles and reports were collected online using the key words "uncertainty analysis" on risk assessment. Uncertainty analysis was conducted based on reports focusing on procedures for analysis methods by the World Health Organization (WHO) and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). In addition, case studies were performed in order to verify suggested methods qualitatively and quantitatively with exposure data, including measured data on toluene and styrene in residential spaces and multi-use facilities.
Results: Based on an analysis of the data on uncertainty, three major factors including scenario, model, and parameters were identified as the main sources of uncertainty, and tiered approaches were determined. In the case study, the risk of toluene and styrene was evaluated and the most influential factors were also determined. Five reduction plans were presented: providing standard guidelines, using reliable exposure factors, possessing quality controls for analysis and scientific expertise, and introducing a peer review system.
Conclusion: In this study, we established a method for reducing uncertainty by taking into account the major factors. Also, we showed a method for uncertainty analysis with tiered approaches. However, uncertainties are difficult to define because they are generated by many factors. Therefore, further studies are needed for the development of technical guidelines based on the representative scenario, model, and parameters developed in this study.
|
|
|
KEYWORD
|
|
|
Monte Carlo simulation, risk assessment, uncertainty
|
|
|
FullTexts / Linksout information
|
|
|
|
|
|
Listed journal information
|
|
|
|